New England at Buffalo — wind and rain
Sixteen miles per hour out of the south at Highmark Stadium, with gusts to eighteen, and the NWS has the wind as a passing factor. That is a working wind for the early window. Anything thrown more than thirty yards is going to drift. The slight chance of rain, at twenty-one percent, adds a layer to the run game — wet hands, slick ball. The wind leaves the passing game affected; the rain leans on the run game.
Tennessee at Baltimore — drizzle
Thirty-nine percent for areas of drizzle at M&T Bank Stadium. The precipitation probability is the number: 39%. That is enough to make the ball a different object for a half. The run game feels it first — footing, fumbles, the decision to hand off at all. The wind is low at seven, so the passing game is largely untouched. But the drizzle, at 39%, shapes the run game.
Arizona at New York Giants — rain chance
MetLife Stadium has a 25% chance of rain showers. That is not a guarantee, but it is a number I have. A 25% chance is enough to condition the run game — the back who does not fumble in the dry is untested. The wind is calm at eight. Passing is fine. The run game gets the effect.
Los Angeles Rams at Philadelphia — rain
Lincoln Financial Field carries a 39% chance of rain showers, the highest of the early window. The wind gust reaches fifteen, but the sustained is only five, so the rain is the story. Wet field, wet ball. The run game handles the adjustment; the passing game is secondarily affected by the ball. The run game leans on the precipitation.
Dallas at Houston — thunderstorms
NRG Stadium has a retractable roof, and it is open for the early kick. Chance showers and thunderstorms at 36%, with gusts to twenty-two. The gust is not at the threshold I use for a full passing factor, but twenty-two is enough to push a deep ball. The thunderstorms add the possibility of a delay or lightning, but I will not forecast a delay. For the game as played, the precipitation and gusty wind affect both the passing game — the wind — and the run game — the rain. Two effects on one field.
Neutral environments — domes and calm conditions
The rest of the Week 4 slate is either indoors or calm. Domes: Miami at Minnesota (U.S. Bank Stadium), Kansas City at Las Vegas (Allegiant Stadium), Atlanta at New Orleans (Caesars Superdome). Calm skies: New York Jets at Chicago (sunny, low wind), Green Bay at Tampa (mostly sunny, low wind), Jacksonville at Cincinnati (mostly sunny, low wind), Los Angeles Chargers at Seattle (sunny, low wind), Denver at San Francisco (mostly cloudy, low wind), Detroit at Carolina (wind calm, slight rain chance under 20%). These are neutral environments. The ball goes where it is thrown. No wind, no rain, no cold. The map says calm. I have no adjustments to report.
