Projection Gaps — 2026 Week 4
- Above baseline — moderate confidence: Jalon Daniels (QB). Baseline 1.6 · Desk 14.1 · Gap +12.5. Why: The desk's model sees a role expansion that the baseline does not capture. The available evidence supports the gap but is not robust enough to guarantee it. What changes it: If the first two drives show a usage profile closer to the baseline than the desk's, the number was too high. A quiet pregame report also collapses the call.
- Below baseline — moderate confidence: Breece Hall (RB). Baseline 10.8 · Desk 4.3 · Gap -6.5. Why: The desk's touch projection contracts sharply below the baseline on the available evidence. What changes it: If Hall's first-quarter touch count matches the baseline's expectation, the desk re-files higher.
- Below baseline — moderate confidence: Caleb Williams (QB). Baseline 9.9 · Desk 4.0 · Gap -5.9. Why: The desk's script scenario diverges from the room's, lowering the expected volume. What changes it: If the game script the baseline assumes materializes in the first quarter, the desk's number was too low.
- Below baseline — moderate confidence: Dallas Goedert (TE). Baseline 9.2 · Desk 3.7 · Gap -5.5. Why: The desk narrows the target share relative to the baseline on the available evidence. What changes it: If the target distribution in the first half looks like the baseline's, the gap was noise.
- Below baseline — moderate confidence: Adonai Mitchell (WR). Baseline 7.8 · Desk 3.1 · Gap -4.7. Why: The desk's read on coverage assignment tightens the ceiling. What changes it: If Mitchell draws a cornerback matchup that the baseline priced as neutral, the desk stands.
- Below baseline — moderate confidence: Mason Taylor (TE). Baseline 6.4 · Desk 2.5 · Gap -3.9. Why: The desk discounts the target volume based on the same narrow-evidence pattern. What changes it: If the first drive shows Taylor as the primary target on a third-down conversion, the gap contracts.
- Watch list: Terrance Ferguson — beyond the cap of six (gap -2.7)
- Watch list: Josh Allen — beyond the cap of six (gap -3.5)
- Watch list: Brock Bowers — beyond the cap of six (gap -2.3)
- Watch list: Puka Nacua — beyond the cap of six (gap -2.5)
- Watch list: Xavier Legette — beyond the cap of six (gap -2.5)
- Watch list: Aaron Jones — beyond the cap of six (gap -2.4)
- Watch list: Zay Flowers — beyond the cap of six (gap -2.2)
- 6 calls from 1004 eligible players.
