Projection Gaps — 2026 Week 5
- Above baseline — moderate confidence: Jalon Daniels (QB). Baseline 6.3 · Desk 14.6 · Gap +8.3. Why: The desk sees a favorable matchup that the baseline isn't capturing. What changes it: A short week and limited practice participation could close the gap.
- Below baseline — moderate confidence: Breece Hall (RB). Baseline 9.9 · Desk 3.9 · Gap -6.0. Why: The desk expects a low-volume role against a stout front. What changes it: A game script that stays competitive would flip the call.
- Below baseline — moderate confidence: Adonai Mitchell (WR). Baseline 7.4 · Desk 3.0 · Gap -4.4. Why: The desk sees limited separation in the target tree this week. What changes it: An early injury report that clears the path for targets.
- Above baseline — moderate confidence: Case Keenum (QB). Baseline 8.4 · Desk 13.2 · Gap +4.8. Why: The desk projects a higher-volume passing day than the baseline. What changes it: A surprise defensive adjustment from the opponent could shrink the gap.
- Below baseline — moderate confidence: Pat Bryant (WR). Baseline 5.9 · Desk 2.4 · Gap -3.5. Why: The desk sees a low-target floor with no clear vertical role. What changes it: A bump in routes run in practice would push the call upward.
- Below baseline — moderate confidence: Marcus Mariota (QB). Baseline 7.9 · Desk 3.1 · Gap -4.8. Why: The desk sees a backup workload with limited passing volume. What changes it: A surprise start or a heavy passing script could change the number.
- Watch list: Zay Flowers — beyond the cap of six (gap -2.3)
- Watch list: Isaiah Likely — beyond the cap of six (gap -2.0)
- Watch list: Chris Godwin Jr. — beyond the cap of six (gap -2.1)
- Watch list: Ja'Marr Chase — beyond the cap of six (gap -2.1)
- Watch list: Jeremiyah Love — beyond the cap of six (gap -2.0)
- Watch list: Justin Jefferson — beyond the cap of six (gap -2.0)
- Watch list: Tee Higgins — beyond the cap of six (gap -2.0)
- Watch list: Nico Collins — beyond the cap of six (gap -2.0)
- 6 calls from 477 eligible players.
