Projection Gaps — 2026 Week 3
- Below baseline — moderate confidence: Caleb Williams (QB). Baseline 15.8 · Desk 6.3 · Gap -9.5. Why: The quarterback's matchup ceiling is capped by an opponent that has surrendered the fewest points to the position through two weeks. What changes it: If the Bears' run game gets going early and the script stays neutral, the pass volume could push the actual closer to baseline.
- Above baseline — moderate confidence: Marcus Mariota (QB). Baseline 8.4 · Desk 16.1 · Gap +7.7. Why: The desk prices a rushing floor the baseline underrepresents; Mariota has averaged more than five carries per game in his starts, and this week's opponent has struggled to contain mobile quarterbacks. What changes it: If the game script forces the offense to abandon designed runs by the second quarter, the floor drops.
- Above baseline — moderate confidence: Jameis Winston (QB). Baseline 6.3 · Desk 12.1 · Gap +5.8. Why: The baseline treats Winston as a reserve, but the desk prices the starting role with deep-ball aggression against a secondary that has allowed deep completions at a high rate. What changes it: A mid-week shift in the depth chart that removes the starting designation would send the desk back to the baseline.
- Below baseline — moderate confidence: Dallas Goedert (TE). Baseline 9.7 · Desk 3.9 · Gap -5.8. Why: Declining target share in consecutive weeks and a linebacker corps that has allowed the second-fewest yards to tight ends. What changes it: An injury to the Eagles' receiving corps that forces more two-tight-end sets could rebound the target share.
- Below baseline — moderate confidence: Mason Taylor (TE). Baseline 6.6 · Desk 2.7 · Gap -3.9. Why: The team's usage split has Taylor running fewer routes than the other tight end each week. What changes it: A Friday practice report showing Taylor as the clear TE1 would erase the gap.
- Below baseline — moderate confidence: Malik Nabers (WR). Baseline 10.2 · Desk 7.2 · Gap -3.0. Why: The quarterback situation caps the pass volume across the board. What changes it: A decisive performance in the first half (three catches, a downfield target) would force a re-evaluation for the second half, but the desk holds through the first two quarters.
- Watch list: Chris Olave — beyond the cap of six (gap -2.6)
- Watch list: Jonathon Brooks — beyond the cap of six (gap -2.5)
- Watch list: Zay Flowers — beyond the cap of six (gap -2.3)
- Watch list: Tyler Warren — beyond the cap of six (gap 2.0)
- Watch list: Nico Collins — beyond the cap of six (gap -2.1)
- Watch list: Jalen Coker — beyond the cap of six (gap -2.0)
